The months of inventory in North Fulton for Townhomes / Condos. Last year at this time it was 9.6 months of inventory. That is a 30% reduction in inventory levels over the past 12 months.

On the last day of each month I post a “Big Number” or interesting figure related to real estate.

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This week the Alpharetta City Council approved the $700M development of Avalon, formerly Prospect Park. There was a bit of contention among the community, pertaining specifically to the number of rentals and the amount of surface parking visible from Old Milton Pkwy. In the end, the city approved the development with 52 conditions which will be released to the public in the coming days.

I’m not discussing any of the controversies here, Lee at rootsinalpharetta.com has had the best coverage of the issues regarding this development; you can read it all here. But I have been thinking about what this means for the city and local real estate.

Benefits To The City and Homeowners

Without question this development will be a crown jewel for the City of Alpharetta. Located right at Hwy 400 and Old Milton Pkwy, it covers over 80 acres and will offer extensive retail and office space, a hotel, movie theater and a whole foods store. In addition there will be 382 residential units, both condos and single-family homes, and include approximately 250 luxury apartments located above the retail stores. It will be THE shopping destination for our city and the greater area – bringing in over $20M in taxes annually.

And while many city residents will be driving to this location, it will be walkable or bike-able for some condo communities located just north of Westside Parkway like Academy Park and Woodlands at Webb Bridge. Also, there are communities with single family homes like Spring Run and Clairmonte. Without question the Avalon development will increase property values for these communities and it will be a positive effect for real estate in Alpharetta, Milton and Johns Creek in general.

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North Fulton is already a community of choice for home buyers relocating into our are. We have great schools, many technology companies, shopping and great restaurants. Avalon will make it even better.

Home sales have been skyrocketing in North Fulton and judging by the numbers, they have been happening in North Fulton west of 400 more than east of 400. Real estate home sales are up 27% vs 3% on the west side. Why? Maybe because prices have become more competative. Here are the charts:

The median home sales price is down 19% on the west side compared to 7% in North Fulton east. The really good news though is the average sales price to list price ration is up, days on market is down and inventory is way down.

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In addition to the numbers above, for all of North Fulton:

• short sales make up approximately 6% of all sales
• foreclosures make up 16% of all sales
• 9 sales closed over $1M (6 in west, 3 east)
• 25 sales closed under $100k (17 in west, 8 east)

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Features and Price Points

There are some features that home buyers search for which will drive them to a higher price point. Basements and additional parking are two of the most common “wants” in lower price points. For example, you can find homes under $300k in North Fulton with a basement but there are no homes under $300k with a 3 car garage. You have to be in the mid $300′s in order to get that feature, or at least now you do. Last year there were 11 homes sold under $300k with both features but those features in that price point is gone.

In all of North Fulton: Roswell, Alpharetta, Milton and Johns Creek I looked at homes with basements and 3-car garages under $400,000. Over the past 12 months there have been 39 homes sold with those two criteria, at an average sales price $317,000. It happens to come out under $90/sq. ft. on average.

How many are on the market right now, as of this post? 17. That’s in all of North Fulton. Approximately 5 months of inventory.

Understanding the Market Changes

You see, average sales prices haven’t started creeping up yet. The market has been improving but that has consisted mostly of inventory declining steadily and unit sales increasing. Most people want to hear that average sales prices will start improving because that is how the will get back some of their lost equity.

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But the changes that are happening right now involve the lower price points. Specifically the quality of homes in the very low price points, under $200k; and features available such as 3-car garages. It begs the question, what will the floor be for homes like this next year – $350? Higher? If you’re looking for a home right now and you’re not seeing what you want – there is a reason for that. A lot of other people are looking for it as well. The question is; do you keep waiting for the “right” thing to hit the market? Will there be a lot more inventory in May or June? Maybe, but there will be more buyers too.

The market is changing, it’s improving. Do you see it yet?

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The number of New Construction Homes available in North Fulton (Roswell, Alpharetta, Milton, Johns Creek) that are Earthcraft Certified. Looking for an Earthcraft home in North Atlanta? We can help.

On the last day of each month I post a “Big Number” or interesting figure related to real estate.

The vision for Crabapple, based on the master plan, is a diverse and beautiful walkable community connected by surface streets, sidewalks, trails and pathways. A rich mix of residential, office, retail and public spaces that provide “outdoor rooms”. With thoughtful consideration on traffic flow, future growth and ascetics, the plan will manage this in a rural-to-urban transect. How, you may ask?

SmartCode

SmartCode is a model code designed to structure walkable neighborhoods. The code will be locally customized by planners, architects and attorneys. It sets zones that transition development from rural to urban spaces based on that area character rather than on conventional land uses. Thereby allowing a diversity of building types, civic spaces and appropriate characteristics for each location.

For example, at the intersection of Crabapple Crossroads we have retail shops, a gas station and government buildings. Migrating out from there we have retail, restaurants and more shops but at the same time residential begins to mix in. And, possibly residential over retail. Moving further out may be predominately residential but transitioning to larger lots or acreage. All this connected with bike paths, greenways and/or horse trails.

The idea of having the ability to walk from home to school to shop to home is what has made Crabapple so attractive and will continue to do so as these improvements are made. As the sidewalks and trails move further out from the center, more communities will become part of the environment. Instead of just Crabapple Crossroads or Braeburn, communities like Crabapple Chase, Kensington Farms, Six Hills and others will easily be able to walk or bike to destinations rather than drive and look for parking.

It’s a very interesting plan that the community has been involved in along the way. I’m sure the final outcome will be great and I can’t wait to see this unfold. We have home buyers who would love to be close to a location like this and I only see that segment of home buyers growing.

The Community

Atlanta National is a prestigious gated and private golf course community located in Milton Ga. The community itself is not terribly large, with only about 26 homes built at this time. Some of the homes have been built in the late 80′s and early 90′s, a few are more recent. The course is a Pete and P.B.Dye golf course and is gorgeous. Here you can check out listings in Atlanta National.

Over the past year there have been 3 sales, all over $1M. But the community hasn’t been immune to the economy and there are a few distressed homes available for sale right now. In fact, you can even buy a home once owned by Kenny Rogers! Yes, the Kenny Rogers that knows when to hold em’.  I’ve seen it, I think they should fold em’…. But when a foreclosure recently hit the market at $489,900 I had to do a double-take.

The Property

This bank owned property was built in 1975 which in and of itself surprised me. I didn’t know there was anything that old in there. The community was build in the late 80′s – possibly this home was there first and the community was built around it? If anyone knows – let me know, I’m curious.

Going through the home with the perspective of renovation I thought I would see incredible value. To get into a community like this for under $500k is pretty amazing. But once you see the floor plan you’re left scratching your head. This home is basically a 2 bedroom home with the master and the secondary bedroom upstairs (and that’s all that’s upstairs).

The main floor is very 70′s with low ceilings and a choppy layout. The basement is separated into 2 different spaces with stairs going down to each space individually. In the center of the home is a massive 9′ x 4′ brick chimney running from basement to master upstairs.

Tear It Down

Essentially, this home is a tear-down. The home is in rough shape and the floor plan is so dysfunctional from today’s buyer’s perspective that a renovation would make no sense at all, unless you could buy the home for under $200k. But at that price it becomes a lot value – why renovate, just build new.

The Point

With the downturn in the economy and the flood of foreclosures on the market, often buyers perceive a low-priced foreclosure automatically as a great deal. Not always true – definitely not in this case. I’ll be curious what it goes for but personally, it shouldn’t sell for more than a lot value and in my mind, that’s not more than $200k.

I know, it doesn’t seem to make sense, we should be able to find what we’re looking for, right? The problem is, inventory is thinning out. Homes that are in great condition and priced well are going quickly.

The descriptions of what we are looking for are brief but please take a look and if you think there is a match, contact me: info@thenorthgroup.com.

Client 1: Lake Lanier, Dock, Master on Main $350-$450k

Client 2: Empty Nesters looking for 2nd home. Cumming or Alpharetta. 3 bed/3 bath townhome or condo, maintenance free with an elevator. $375k and up.

Client 3: 4 bed / 2.5 bath in the Roswell / Marietta area, No Synthetic Stucco. Would like a basement, finished a plus. Nice sized backyard preferably with fence.  $300k – $400k

Client 4: Milton, Roswell, Alpharetta:  Full finished basement, open floor plan, walking neighborhood, 4 bed / 3 bath, 1995 or newer that has been renovated, nice outdoor space (doesn’t have to be large, just private). $350-$450k Windward community is great.

Client 5: $350-$450k Milton, Alpharetta,Cumming, full finished basement a plus, side load garage a must, 4/2.5 or more, no synthetic stucco.

Client 6: Up to $275k. Ranch or smaller home with master on main. Does not need a basement. Grove Park subdivision in Cumming would be perfect. Otherwise a walkable community like downtown Roswell, Crabapple or close to downtown Alpharetta. Updated or priced well if needing updates.

Months of inventory for single-family homes in North Fulton across all price ranges. Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market, not a sellers market or a buyers market. How long will it take for home buyer psychology to accept that the housing market in North Atlanta has changed? Maybe that should be next months Big Number.

On the last day of each month I post a “Big Number” or interesting figure related to real estate.

This has created an incredibly tight rental market putting those needing to rent in a position of having to react very quickly in order to get a property. Some real estate agents echo that sentiment as well. While not all real estate agents out there work with renters because, frankly there isn’t any money in it, those that do will sound a consistent refrain; “I wish I had 5 more rentals like that, it rented out in a day”.

I don’t have data showing trends here in North Atlanta because I don’t typically work with renters, but here are two charts reflecting national trends:

Helping Home Sellers

Home prices have fallen and rental rates have risen over the past 2 years. Mortgages have stayed incredibly cheap; so much so that investors have jumped back in the market on low home prices in order to capitalize on high rental demand. At the same time first-time buyers who are currently renting are finally seeing the value again in owning vs renting.

Because of these trends, pay very close attention to the lower price points for home sales. These are the first areas where inventory will tighten to the point of almost becoming a sellers market. Yes, I said sellers market. We aren’t there yet but it’s approaching very fast in the lower price ranges. More so in North Fulton and East Cobb. Forsyth County still needs to work through a higher level of inventory before we’re there.