No Change = Big Change

In reviewing home sales date in our area for the second quarter of 2011 your initial reaction might be much like mine was – unimpressed. However, there is reason to feel good.

I pull quarterly numbers and look at what I think are the most important data points each quarter. Also, I prefer comparing quarterly data year-over-year so we are seasonally adjusted, rather than comparing spring to winter when you would anticipate better numbers.

I’ll be reporting on a broader range in the coming weeks, but here is what I found for North Fulton West, comparing Q2-2011 to Q2-2010:

North Fulton Home Sales Stats

The first thing you will notice is the unimpressive change, everything is pretty much flat. Except for average total days on market, which dropped a whopping 14% (a very good thing). So, where is the huge improvement?

No Tax Credit This Year

Last year the increased activity and rush of purchases made by first-time buyers and move-up buyers drew a great deal of activity into the second quarter. Unit sales were drastically inflated by that tax credit demand, so much so that after June of 2010 activity literally fell off a cliff.

This year we matched those numbers with no tax credit, which indicates that demand has increased naturally rather than by government inducement. I think we’ll see a much better second-half this year than in 2010. All this shows a trend of improvement that goes above merely "stabilization".

You know that saying, "you don’t know you’re past the bottom until you’re looking back at it?” Start looking back. I’ll be providing more positive data in the coming weeks.