It’s time to look back at the numbers for 2010 and see how we fared over the year. I’ve written often about how real estate is local and that we shouldn’t pay too much attention to the national numbers we hear on the news. There are pockets around metro Atlanta that will do better or worse than the over-all metro numbers we hear as well.
I pulled the data for North Fulton East of Hwy 400 and West of 400 and compared the home sales numbers to 2009. These areas include the cities of Alpharetta, Milton, Roswell and Johns Creek. As far as me touting the better market in North Fulton, I’ll say generally I was right, but it didn’t turn out to be as good as I thought it would. Before we look at the numbers though, here are a couple of definitions for the chart, just to be clear:
Avg. Sales Price / Orig. List Price – A home might be originally listed at $525k, then reduced several times but goes under contract while at $475k, then ultimately sells at $450k. $525k is the original list price. That is the number I used in my Sales Price to List Price ratio.
Avg. Total Days on Market – If a home is listed, expires, then goes back on the market and finally sells I use the total days on market, not the number of days it was listed the second time.
These two factors paint a very true picture of price reductions and market time.
As you can see, the first thing that jumps out is that the average sales price on the west side dropped 7% while east of Hwy 400 the average sales price rose 2%. The recent case shiller report noted in October that “Atlanta was one of six cities that hit their lowest level since prices began to fall in 2006″. I suspect that when the Case-Shiller data comes out through the end of the year it will show metro Atlanta down around 10% for the year. But North Fulton East showing some stabilizing is definitely a good sign.
Other good news is that the average Sales Price to Original List Price has remained fairly flat and the Total Days On Market is improved as well. Transactions were up slightly for the year and we should see that trend continue through 2011.
I do have to admit though, with Milton High School being one of the most sought-after schools in the area, I thought that values would have held a bit tighter on the west side. So, I pulled the same data for Milton District only and found something very surprising.
Home vales in that district slipped even more, on average. While that may be good news for people outside the area trying to get their kids into that district, it is obviously not good news for current home sellers in the Milton HS district.
I remain optimistic about the direction we are heading but realistic about the time it will take to get there. If you have specific questions about your school district or community – let us know, we can help.
The numbers for the Milton Scool District seem anemic. Do you have any clarification or justification as too why Average Sales Prices were hit so hard in the Milton School District?
Todd, first let me say that it doesn’t have anything to do with the school. You know, the size of the area I pull information from makes a big difference. A data set too small can look abnormally low or high. We know that North Fulton will look different than Metro Atlanta but I’m surprised as well that Milton is so far off from North Fulton West as it is.
Of the 39 homes in North Fulton West that were originally listed over $1M, nearly half of them are in the Milton Dist. and the average SP / OLP ratio for those was 74%. Also, in the Milton Dist. were the foreclosure deals in the Crabapple area. Those two things weren’t the only contributors but were significant factors.
Good information and analysis Bob.
Thanks Jim.
Bob, Thank you. It’s nice know were to go to get real data/info as to what’s going on in our area.