Last month I read an article from the Brookings Institute titled “The Next Real Estate Boom”. It’s a little long but very interesting. Did you know that 50% of our population is made up of two demographics (baby boomers and their children)? And most of them want communities that have commercial / retail.
One of the main points in the article is that there is greater demand for walkable communities and a lack of supply. Couple that with a recent study funded by the Georgia Regional Transit Authority and GDOT which says:
• More than 38% of participants preferred narrower streets where walking and biking would be safer.
• Over 28% preferred smaller home lots as a trade off for living closer to work or school.
• 24% preferred mixed-use development, where they can walk to shops and restaurants.
• More than 22% preferred connected street networks, where they can feasibly take alternative modes of transportation.
• Approximately 18% would live in dense developments that include a mixture of detached homes, townhomes and apartments.
Why do I bring this up? Our housing recovery here in North Atlanta is still nascent but we will recover. The demand for our schools and proximity to Atlanta will be there as it always had. But, when that recovery happens will we see a return to the same cookie-cutter communities that spring up around Alpharetta, Milton and Cumming? Do we need more “wood glens”, “wood knolls” or “woodbrook springs”? I doubt we will have as many of the 6000 square foot homes and massive subdivisions run amok like we have had in the past. But what will our growth look like and what will better serve our communities and cities as well as our residents?
New Urbanism and Smart Growth
When the recovery is in full swing we should meet the demand for mixed use communities. Promote Smart Growth zoning that will allow single-family homes, townhomes and apartments to surround retail and commercial space. The City of Milton can’t survive without a commercial tax base. That commercial / retail need can be met while placating the NIMBY crowd who don’t want another big box retailer popping up in the area or all the green space and horse pastures to disappear.
Imagine the Birmingham Crossroads area growing intelligently. With more commercial / retail at the intersection followed by a ring of smaller single-family homes and townhomes. Outside that are more traditional communities but all with well-planned walking and biking access to retail areas. Small parks, fountains and green space dot the commercial development. Riding trails to surrounding farms and shuttles to Crabapple, Alpharetta and Downtown Woodstock.
Alpharetta, Roswell, Milton, Johns Creek and Cumming should consider combining efforts into creating or being part of a regional transportation system. I hope we don’t really envision the future of our cities to merely be larger versions of our subdivision farms, all dumping cars out onto secondary roads on their way to Windward Pkwy and North Point Mall. There will be future growth, there is no doubt about that. There is a better, smarter way. And, there is demand for it. The question is, who out there is thinking about it?
Couldn’t disagree with you more on this one Bob. Smart growth is a charade being pushed by developers because it quadruples the density of their speculative parcels thereby quadrupling their profits.
Mixed use with townhomes? That was the good old days. A few years ago Penn Hodge got a 13 story condo tower zoned on Windward Parkway. What’s an extra 12,000 car trips on one of the most congested intersections in town?
And keep in mind that if 24% of people want to live in mixed use developments that means 76% don’t. Vickery Creek and Prospect Park were supposed to be the wave of the future but they were both in trouble long before the economic collapse.
Alpharetta has been the jewel of North Fulton because it is perfect for young families raising children. You say that the demand for our schools will always be there but you overlook the impact of high density development on those schools. If you don’t believe me check the test scores for any elementary school with high density mixed use in the district.
You are right that in the future there will be mixed use developments for the 24% of people that want them. Young, single people and empty nesters will support mixed use in areas like Atlanta, Sandy Springs or Vinings that have already run off the young families.
But high density mixed use won’t succeed in North Fulton until the developers have driven out the families that live here now.
Jim has hit the nail on the head. The numbers from this study are hardly compelling.
I agree with your assessment of Milton and their need for a larger commercial tax base. But if the current political climate continues there, it’ll never happen.
Though I wouldn’t mind seeing more sidewalks and biking trails between subdivisions here in Alpharetta (and wouldn’t mind a reasonable tax increase to get them), I would suggest that the case for “Smart growth” made in the link above is much more “sales pitch” than a “fact-based”. As such, its based on a large number of pretty laughable assumptions. Here was my top 10, as well as my reaction to them :
1. “Suburban houses can be socially isolating, especially as aging eyes and slower reflexes make driving everywhere less comfortable.”
- So expecting these elderly people to walk to public transportation will be more comfortable for them?
2. “This generation is more likely to plant roots in walkable urban areas and force local government to fix urban school districts rather than flee to the burbs for their schools.”
- Really? So Bob, how many of your home buyers over the years have actively sought out poor-school districts optimistic that they’ll be able to “force change” there?
3. “Not surprisingly, fully 77 percent of millennials plan to live in America’s urban cores.”
- Sure, many also lived in a dorm room for several years, but would they consider raising their families there?
4. “Generation Y’s aspirations have been informed by Friends and Sex in the City, shows set in walkable urban places”.
- ….who’s characters (Chandler, Monica, Rachel and Ross) eventually moved to the suburbs to raise their families.
5. “The Census Bureau estimates that America is going to grow from 310 million people today to 440 million by 2050.”
– So, wouldn’t this expectation work to eventually soak up the inventory of suburban housing, even in the event of the baby boomer’s eventual downsizing?
6. “Most importantly, the very act of moving to more walkable neighborhoods will free families from the expense of buying, fueling, and maintaining the two or more cars they typically need to get around in auto-dependent suburbs.”
– When we’re all driving electric cars costing 1 cent per mile to power in 5-10 years, will this really be as large a cost concern?
7. “Put another way, dropping one car out of the typical household budget can allow that family to afford a $100,000 larger mortgage.”
- A cost reflected in the higher cost of the smaller urban dwelling, so really where’s the savings?
8. “Today, walkable city neighborhoods command the highest per-square-foot prices.”
- see last comment.
9. “The baby-boomer child-rearing days are ending, and all those empty rooms have to be heated, cooled…”
– Okay, fair point, but wouldn’t a suburban home with a larger available rooftop for solar-paneling be better suited for energy self-sufficiency than a small townhouse or urban condo?
10. “That means that at least some walkable developments will be built to include housing for lower-income families, and more can be done along these lines using existing federal housing programs such as the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit.”
– Oh yeah, that’ll boost property values, keep foreclosure rates low, and make the walkable community more desirable. Sure…
Sorry Bob, for as much as I don’t expect urban city centers to wane in popularity among 20-somethings, I think its a silly bit of salesmanship on the part of Christopher Leinberger to suggest that the era of the suburb is ending.
Well, I can count the number of communities that are close to public transportation and support mixed use:
* Centennial in Roswell
* Vickery creek in Cumming
* Milton park in Alpharetta
An others?
Could not agree more with what Jimmy and Barry said.
Perhaps you’ve never been to the old Soviet Union. No thanks. I don’t care to live like that. The argument that sardine-living is more conducive to “community” is bunk. Why is it we had more community growing up on the farm where we had acres between us and the neighbors? Closer living quarters actually seems to cause people to retreat into their own shells.
I don’t see this sort of environment appealing to anyone but the extreme extrovert. And then there is the generation what will have been conditioned to this sort of living by a hyper-inflated cost-of-living and social engineering… like the old Soviet Union. No thanks.
Tough crowd Bob! Since the comments are only covering one side of the spectrum, I figured I’d weigh in.
First, your data from a regional perspective is spot on. North Fulton will see similar changes over the next 20 years. Nationally, the changes will be even more pronounced. Remember that the kids that are 10-20 years old now are the ones that will be demographically running things in 2030. Yikes. They will have never known an environment that was rural or in many cases even suburban. Boomers will be dying off and those that aren’t gone will need environments that are much more pedestrian friendly and non-auto dependent than much of North Fulton.
Now, naysayers please consider what North Fulton (Alpharetta) was 20 years ago. It was farmland. It has been the benefactor of conditions that will never exist again. The city did have the foresight to take advantage of those conditions and has built something that works in the present. It will not work in its current form when gas is at $5-$6/gallon. That is not an if.. it is a when. The status quo is not an option. It’s a silly debate if anyone wants to take it.
Barry, your reactions in your top 10 are comedic and quippy but they are subjective and address opinions that are showing up as the minority opinions in most polls that address the coming demographic shift. Will some kids want to live in big suburban homes with big yards and chauffeur their children everywhere while also going to and from the nursing home to visit their warehoused parents and then going home to mow their lawn? Absolutely, but they will be in the minority.
The real estate market can simply be divided into two categories; drivable suburban and walkable urban.
The pendulum has swung way to far in the direction of drivable suburban to the point that less than 15% of the available housing stock is walkable urban wile 30-50% of the demand is for walkable urban. The coming demand will be more in the range of 40-60% for walkable urban. If you want to sell homes, you better start building walkable urban environments… othewise, you won’t be selling homes. You may wonder why the homes in Virgina Highlands barely took a hit in the RE recession even though they are in the ‘high crime, poverty stricken, poorly educated, scary transit havin” city of Atlanta. It’s simple, more people want those houses than there are houses to sell.
If you need to research more or have your eyes opened to what the consequences of continuing down the 100% drivable suburban path are.. read Christopher Leinberger’s Option of Urbanism or just check out these two articles.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1011.doherty-leinberger.html
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/03/the-next-slum/6653/
Hi Mike – since you liked my last top ten list. I’ll keep the same format
1. “The city did have the foresight to take advantage of those conditions and has built something that works in the present. It will not work in its current form when gas is at $5-$6/gallon. That is not an if.. it is a when. The status quo is not an option. It’s a silly debate if anyone wants to take it.”
- Okay, I’ll be the silly one & debate it then. If in the year 2003, I was willing to pay $2.50/per gallon of gas in a car that got 15 miles to the gallon, why would I freak out about paying $5-6 gallon in 2015 when I’m driving a hybrid that gets 45 mpg? Or better still, maybe I’ve got an electric car that I can power for pennies per mile? The math eventually either works out the same or (in the pure electric scenario) works out even better for me. Certainly, there’s nothing compelling in this argument that makes me want to give up my 3000 square foot house and squeeze my family into a 1500 square foot loft in a walkable community, even if it does have a Starbucks that I can get coffee and pretend to write a screenplay in.
2. “Barry, your reactions in your top 10 are comedic and quippy but they are subjective and address opinions that are showing up as the minority opinions in most polls that address the coming demographic shift.”
- Not according to the stats quoted in Bob’s write up above. Re-read these bullet-points, and realize that although they may evidence some demand, they clearly don’t represent the majority opinion.
• More than 38% of participants preferred narrower streets where walking and biking would be safer.
• Over 28% preferred smaller home lots as a trade off for living closer to work or school.
• 24% preferred mixed-use development, where they can walk to shops and restaurants.
• More than 22% preferred connected street networks, where they can feasibly take alternative modes of transportation.
• Approximately 18% would live in dense (mixed) developments that include a mixture of detached homes, townhomes and apartments.
3. The pendulum has swung way too far in the direction of drivable suburban to the point that less than 15% of the available housing stock is walkable urban wile 30-50% of the demand is for walkable urban.
- Again, if only 18% would live in dense (mixed) developments (see above), then I fail to see how demand can be as high as 50% for these types of units? Perhaps you’re quoting a different survey here, and not one local to Northern Atlanta?
4. You may wonder why the homes in Virgina Highlands barely took a hit in the RE recession even though they are in the ‘high crime, poverty stricken, poorly educated, scary transit havin city of Atlanta. It’s simple, more people want those houses than there are houses to sell.
- No, I don’t wonder this at all, because prices in the Virginia Highlands (30306) DID take a hit. A pretty bad one, in fact. Hop onto Trulia and check it out (http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/30306-Atlanta/market-trends/) . In 2007, the average price per square foot in the Virginia Highlands (30306) was $326, today its $226, for a loss of 30%. By contrast, the price per square foot in my zip code (3005) dropped from $136 to $111 during this period, a loss of 18%. Not only does this not support your assertion, it in fact, suggests evidence to the contrary of it.
5. If you need to research more or have your eyes opened to what the consequences of continuing down the 100% drivable suburban path are.. read Christopher Leinberger’s Option of Urbanism or just check out these two articles.
- Keep in mind that the two articles you cite here are written by a real estate developer with a motivation to continue his livelihood building and promoting something new. Clearly, we can’t be sold any more suburban homes, as we’ve got way too many of them sitting unoccupied, so in place of that, we get the hard sell on why we can’t live without walkable communities. “Never ask a barber if you need a haircut,” my grandfather would always say, “he’ll always tell you that you do.”
Having said all this, I want to say that I do see a place in Alpharetta for walkable communities. I’m certainly in favor of them as a complimentary piece, as I do see where this type of lifestyle could be appealing to young, single professionals in their 20s. As such, I fully support the development of Peridot (off 400, Exit 9) and can see a day where several more of these may one day blend into the Alpharetta landscape. I’m totally cool with that, as I do see certain advantages there that a young person may enjoy.
Keep in mind however, that this population demographic only represents a sliver of the total population of Alpharetta. As such, to suggest that today’s suburbia will become tomorrow’s slum (as suggested in Christopher Leinberger’s 2008 article) is just pure shock-value fiction.
The Northern Atlanta suburban lifestyle and its family-sized dwellings are not going anywhere, anytime soon.