At least not here in Atlanta…..
I know you might not be feeling it right now and I can speak for a lot of Realtors out there when I say it’s a challenging market. Sometimes people look at me a little funny when I say things are getting better, so rather that write out a long diatribe that makes me sound like I’m “drinking the kool-aid” I’ll share some numbers and charts with you.
Foreclosures In Metro Atlanta Are Slowing Down
Every time I turn the TV on someone is saying “brace yourself for a wave of more foreclosures”. I’m not suggesting that they are going away, we’ll have foreclosures as part the housing market for years to come, but they are slowing and will continue to merely trickle in, so don’t look for a “wave”.
Home Sales Are Up
In our area, North Fulton, sales for January to the end of October 2010 are 7% higher than the same period in 2009. Here is a chart showing the trend of single family detached home sales in Forsyth County.
The Median Sales Price Has Stabilized
The sharp decline in median sales price from mid 2008 to Jan 2009 coupled with the increase in foreclosures at that time brought about a very real buying opportunity that has slowly allowed sales prices to begin recovery. Prices have now normalized somewhat and we should see this trend continue, albeit at a slow pace.
What’s It All Add Up To?
With foreclosures slowing and homes prices becoming somewhat normalized, the attractiveness of foreclosures over resales may be diminishing (generally speaking). I know that there will continue to be some great deals out there but the truly great deals are less frequent. We are seeing plenty of good deals on both foreclosures and resales. But we’re seeing fewer buyers that are looking exclusively at foreclosures.
On the flip side, it’s still no party for home sellers. The market bottom is past us for both number of sales and median sales price, but home sellers are competing with a lot of inventory.
Am I painting too Rosy a picture?
Great information and charts, Bob, but I do have a slightly less rosy interpretation.
The market is definitely picking up as prices come down in Atlanta but I don’t see prices stabilizing yet. The 11/12/10 Atlanta Business Chronicle reported that home prices in Atlanta dropped 12% in the 3rd quarter.
Also, you indicate the higher median sales price and lower percentage of foreclosure sales are signs of recovery but instead I see them as signs that sellers in the higher price ranges are finally biting the bullet and lowering their prices to compete with the distressed sales.
Don’t misunderstand, I think your charts are all good signs but I don’t think we are quite as far along the road to recovery as you seem to indicate.
Jim, you might be right about the higher priced homes, but I’m not sure. I don’t know about Metro Atlanta but I know in North Fulton home sales over $750k is less than 10% of the market. In Forsyth it’s less than 2%. But in Metro Atlanta you have a lot of high priced homes in Buckhead and the surrounding area so I’m sure it’s higher. Good points to consider though….