…..or do we even know?
Fannie Mae reported that serious delinquencies fell for the fifth straight month in July (for single-family mortgages). This indicates that housing troubles are easing and the economy is slowly beginning to mend. Loans that constitute a serious delinquency are 90-days late. That rate dropped from 4.99% in June to 4.82% in July. The change from one month to the next isn’t particularly large but the trend over the 5 months is the important factor. Additionally the number of default notices is down 30% year-over-year.
However, recently three banks have halted all foreclosures in the wake of a mortgage servicer’s admission that they signed hundreds of affidavits each day without reviewing the foreclosure documents. So far JPMorgan Chase, GMAC Mortgage and Bank of America have stopped foreclosing on homes until they work out this obviously unmanaged process.
There is a current backlog of foreclosures which will now grow larger as banks halt the process to get their crap together. The question is will they reach a point where a flood of new REO properties hit the market or will it simply extend the overall time that we see foreclosures being a large part of the housing market?
The 10 States With The Highest Foreclosure Rates
1. Nevada
2. Florida
3. Arizona
4. California
5. Idaho
6. Utah
7. GEORGIA
8. Michigan
9. Illinois
10. Hawaii
Now, while Georgia is 7 on the list, Atlanta doesn’t even show up in the top 20 cities nationwide with the highest foreclosure rates. The percentage of sales in Metro Atlanta that are distressed (short sales or foreclosures) has been declining since last year. In Metro Atlanta for second quarter of this year 24% of all sales were distressed. I anticipate that number to drop slightly to around 22%, but again, it’s tough to say how much of that is effected by the drop in delinquencies or the inefficiencies of the banks.
Where We Live: Alpharetta, Roswell, Milton, Cumming
For North Atlanta and Foreclosures in Alpharetta / Milton specifically, the worst of the housing fall is behind us. I don’t see a significant increase in foreclosures. We are already below the average for Metro Atlanta. 15% of all sales in North Fulton (Alpharetta, Roswell and Milton) are distressed sales. Foreclosures in Forsyth County are tracking with the Metro numbers; 24% of all sales year-to-date in Forsyth County are distressed sales.
So, back to my original question, will it get better or worse? I think we’ll continue to move sideways to sightly better numbers (units sold) as we see slow but continuing improvement. This year has been better than 2009, and next year will be better than 2010.
