Pulling market statistics together for North Fulton County is always a little strange, there is really an odd mix to that part of the county. North Fulton County is physically split just about down the middle by Hwy 400. The east side is made up of a portion of Alpharetta, Roswell, Johns Creek and Duluth. The west side consists of a portion of Alpharetta, Milton, Roswell and Mountain Park. What is interesting is that it’s more than a physical or geographical divide. There are other differences between to two sides.
The east side has a higher density, due to access to sewer, and more commercial / shopping. The west side in turn has more horse properties, more communities with a requirement of 1 acre or more and a population that is more adverse to getting sewer and higher density. They both have a great selection of schools in common, which is why both areas are sought-after and have done a little better at surviving the recession than some other parts of Atlanta. But there is another new difference that is happening. It appears that North Fulton West of 400 may be recovering sooner, as noted in the following chart:
As you can see, both areas show a significant increase in units sold year-over-year but what is most noteworthy is that sellers on the west side of Hwy 400 have pushed the envelope on average list prices and are even showing a small increase for average sales price. On the east side of Hwy 400 sellers have been able to maintain prices and I think it’s safe to say that North Fulton as a whole is fairly stable despite the past troublesome two years.
So, why does it seem like one side of North Fulton may be recovering faster than the other? Is it demand for a specific school? Is it a higher demand for lower density development? Could it be congestion? Honestly, I’m not sure myself but I’m interested to hear your ideas.
I’m not a statistician, or a realtor for that matter. But I think you might be jumping to conclusions a bit. Your data set is kinda thin. Something small could be setting it off one way or another.
-Lee
Lee, you’re right that the data set is thin, but it’s thin on purpose. We can talk about national numbers but that might not mean anything to people in Houston, Atlanta, etc. Even if we look at averages for Metro Atlanta, we know that some communities are doing better or worse than others. The narrowest view is when a listing agent runs comps (comparables) for a home owner thinking about selling; only looking at their community. I took a look at one tight data set and compared year-over-year to see changes, but I agree it is a small set. I don’t want anyone to think prices are escalating consistently, just more signs of price stabilization.
Bob,
Those numbers are very encouraging. Hown here in Orlando we’ve seen an uptick but not in the same amount.To what extent do you think the end of the tax credit will effect the recent uptick in the market. Down here in Orlando, March sales were up 5% over February and 40% over March 2009. Prices have ticked up 12% from January. Two thirds of the transactions were short sales and forclosures. The hidden positive I believe is the sudden influx of forgien buyers. I think investors may feel that we are now coming off the true bottom.
Bill, I don’t think the end of the tax credit will effect things here in North Fulton, but definitely in other parts of Atlanta. I put a post out on another blog of mine regarding those numbers for Forsyth county and nearly 50% of sales in March were in that first-time buyer price range. Our bottom here was last year but we’re just starting to “feel” things picking up, although I’m sure some of that is seasonality.
Bob,
Enjoying your updates on the area. I wanted to add my observations in the Northwestern Middle school district, (a very desirable school system because of academic ranking and the proximity directly accross from equally desirable Milton High School). There simply are no homes available in the price ranges you have listed here, unless you want less than a 4 bedroom home with no basement, no yard, no driveway etc., for example, Waterside, Crabapple Chase etc. (not trying to hurt anyone’s feelings if you happen to live there). Additionally, there are a few of those “questionable stucco” homes close to that price range. We are in temporary housing, having relocated for our jobs. (Yes, we have a realtor). I have seen un-updated 15-20 year old homes for sale in this area for the asking price range of 500 – 600K, even higher. Some of these homes have languished on the market, unsold for over a year now. They are not selling, and the sellers ocasionally “reduce” their price by a laughable 5K. I have seen newer homes languish on the market for over a year in the 700K, 800K range as well,(also with an ocasional “reducing” of an absurd amount). These homes are not selling at all. What hasn’t been discussed in this forum, is the criteria now for obtaining a mortgage. Anything over $417K requires at least a 10% down payment. Anything over the mid $500k range requires at least 20% down payment, 600k and over requires 25 -30% downpayment. The home price ranges you listed were most likely bought by first time home buyers with less than 5% down payment, sometimes only 3.5% down payment if close to the FHA limit of 346K. (This price range doesn’t fit 99% of the homes in this school district). I am frustrated by the sellers in this area that are still trying to get a price that is 100K+ more than they purchased the same home for less than 5 years ago. This data on previous selling price is easy to find on the internet. Homes in these higher ranges have not appreciated, they have only depreciated. Yet, sellers are trying to price their home at a 20% increase per year!! Also, most homes in the nicer neighborhoods were bought when “low to no” downpayments or “piggyback” loans were options. I am convinced that most folks in this area would never qualify for the same home they live in under today’s lending limitations. We are high upper middle class working professionals, and we will never have the 20% – 30%+ downpayment on a 600K home. We are continuing to rent a home in the area for much less $ than it would cost us to buy. Frankly, in this economy, I don’t think it would be wise to put all of that cash on a home now. Of course it certainly wouldn’t be a problem at all to put 3.5% down on a 300K home, there just aren’t any in this very desirable area of Fulton county. So I think that your data should reflect the whole picture, not just those at the lower end of the housing market.
On the Fence, glad you’re enjoying the updates. I agree with you on certain items but not on everything entirely. There are some sellers who are overpriced because they bought at the top and can’t go below a certain number. They are part of the excess inventory that is either hurting the market or helping by making other properties look good – depending on how you look at it. But, prices have stabilized in our area. From the peak, metro Atlanta has dropped 25-30% but in North Fulton it’s more like 15-20%. There are some communities that are starting to show price increases, albeit to a very slight extent. I sold a home recently that set a new appraisal high for the community. These are pockets of improvements but I also think they are indicators of more to come. You’re right that there are fewer buyers out there today that have a 20-30% down payment, but they haven’t disappeared completely. Our buyers in the 500k – 650k range are going conventional with down payments. As you mentioned, this is a desirable area and as buyer traffic increases I think we will continue to see price improvements. The ‘deals’ that were out there a year ago are not as great now, next year they will be even more elusive. You are not alone; we have worked with other buyers from different parts of the country that had expectations of deep discounts because that was the market where they came from. It’s just not so here. New construction and land prices got way out-of-whack here but re-sale homes didn’t. Therefore, the drop hasn’t been as extreme as other parts of the country.
It looks like a good time to buy real estate in your area. We have a number of bank foreclosures in Bend Oregon. I hope your have a good year.
Nice job sharing how the market statistics are shaping your market. I hope things continue to improve in your area!