It’s a question buyers and sellers ask almost every day, especially in a market like this, but at the end of the year people look forward to that new beginning. For a brief period of time it’s like the slate gets wiped clean on January 1st. Anything is possible and we look for signs of what may come for Alpharetta real estate. I always say, in order to know where you’re going it helps to know where you’ve been. Looking back over 2009 might not be a pretty picture, depending on your perspective, but it’s telling.

Ouch : Sales declined through most of the year and Sellers really took it on the chin. And builders took it even harder. It’s tough to compete though when almost 40% of all homes being sold in the first 2 quarters were foreclosures or short sales. For those that could take less and get out, they didn’t like it but felt like they made it out. For others, they had to stay put or take a loss. Never before have I seen so many homes available to rent, which was a good alternative for many sellers out there that had to do something.

Cha-Ching : While Sellers were getting beat up, Buyers where cashing in. For those in a position to buy, the real estate deals were plenty and the banks had their shelves stocked with goods. First-time home buyers and renters were in the envious position of not needing to sell and having plenty to choose from. Still, competition was stiff for foreclosures. Banks started the year pricing at the old market value but later realized that aggressive list prices brought multiple offers fast and sales prices that were over list. They were still good deals but the time on market was reduced significantly. The tax credit did it’s job and continues to do so until it expires next year. Inventory levels were reduced quite a bit and now we are seeing an increase in homes sold year-over-year. Comparing November 2009 to November 2008, the number of homes sold in Metro Atlanta are up 52% and for North Fulton, they are up 82% .

Bye Bye: No, all the deals aren’t gone but they are slowly fading away. The expanded tax credit will continue to help but I’m seeing the mindset has changed with both buyers and sellers. At the beginning of the year Sellers were still amazed that a home reduced by $100K could still be on the market and Buyers were amazed it hadn’t been reduced more. Now sales prices have come down further, Sellers except much of the current pricing as market value and Buyers are not willing to spend months looking for that spectacular deal because they are slowly disappearing.

Looking Forward : We will see a higher than normal level of activity for the first 4 months while the tax credits are still in effect. This will help continue to reduce inventory levels and we will continue to see the number of home sold year-over-year go up. Sales prices will flatten out for most, and begin to increase in small pockets of demand and sought-after communities later in the year. The 400 corridor is well positioned with great schools and businesses that are still moving employees into the area.

New construction starts, which showed up in the 4th quarter of 2009 will widen through 2010 due to an abundance of developed lots at bargain prices. Forsyth County will lead the pack here, mainly because builders will be able to buy lots and build in lower price ranges to a greater degree than in North Fulton, but we’ll see that in North Fulton as well. Knight Construction is selling out in the Cumming community of Union Station, which is no surprise as first-time buyers typically gravitate towards new construction when it’s available. I suspect new homes in Crabapple and Milton will have the most opportunities.

Foreclosures will be present for the next couple of years (no surprise) but banks will continue to roll them out slowly keeping competition for them fairly high. Also, thanks to the banks, Short Sales will remain an excruciatingly painful and slow process (thank you Bank of America). Interest rates are anybody’s guess but until unemployment comes down to a respectable 7 or 8% then they will have to remain reasonably low.

How do I know it will all turn out this way? I have inside information that "It is decidedly so".