"It’s that time of year…" as Nancy Wilson sings in The Christmas Waltz. Christmas trees are on the tops of SUV’s all over Alpharetta and Milton; lights are shining on homes throughout many communities. While my 12 year old raises her eyes with that wise old look of experience when she hears her sister ask me if I believe in Santa, my 10 year old still adamantly insists he is real. I know she has friends telling her at school that there is no Santa. It’s the topic of discussion on the bus, but she is convinced – the evidence is clear to her. In fact, she is amazed that those kids at school don’t get it! Then she gives me the list of reasons…or proof, that Santa is real.

The funny thing is, when people ask me about the market and I tell them that we’re past the bottom and we will all see improvement next year; they raise their eyebrows and look at me as if to say "I don’t believe, I know better". Then, just like my daughter does, I start listing reasons why it’s clear we are heading out of our economic real estate woes. Don’t try to convince me otherwise, to me the evidence is clear.

Now, I will admit that the improvement is small and we’ve been beat up pretty badly by the recession so I understand why many people have a hard time believing. And we won’t be out of it overnight, but we are heading in the right direction…let me show you. Below is a chart comparing real estate sales for the last 4 months of 2008 to 2009, with the number for December 2009 being a current snapshot. One chart reflects sales of single family homes, the other townhomes/condos. Both for real estate sold in North Fulton, specifically Alpharetta, Milton, Roswell and Johns Creek.

These two charts show a clear trend of increased sales for both single family homes and townhomes / condos for the end of 2009 over the previous year. Is it simply market improvements? Is it a direct result of the home buyer tax credit? Are we seeing increased sales because prices have come down far enough for buyers to be willing to pull the trigger? I think it’s all three, but it certainly is an indication that we have seen our bottom and things are moving forward in a better direction.

It’s that time of year and we all need to believe. And like my daughter, I’m backing this belief up with some data…so don’t tell me you don’t believe because it’s true.